Friday, April 17, 2009

The Macro Trader

The Macro Trader launched in November of 2007 is one newsletter service that we feel gives us a lot of value. The price is relatively inexpensive at $395 for a year or $125 a quarter and that gives you a weekly newsletter, access to the members section of the website, and any updates that are sent out throughout the week.

So why do we like the newsletter? The main thing that we have noticed is that The Macro Trader cares far more about not losing then it does about knocking the ball out of the park. In fact in 2008 where the SP500 lost about 50% The Macro Trader was able to sidestep it all and generate a positive return of 1.16%. Nothing to flashy but it was done with extremely low drawdowns.

We also like that instead of showing a few trades that you could have taken they give us an entire model portfolio. Many services will tell you that you could have made 87% if you had traded XYZ, or 32% if you had traded ABC. What they don't tell you is that many of these same letters would have helped you to lose your money in a very consistent manner. Any service worth their weight in crap should be honest and let you in on the actual returns you could have/would have made.

Looking back at some of our back issues of The Macro Trader we can see trades that would have made you 20% or more almost each month. Of course they were sized in a risk controlled manner to the model portfolio and there were also losers. They could lie and say that you could have made 22% in a week shorting EWI a few months ago but that would have been misleading.

So now that we know how The Macro Trader reports returns what do we think about their analysis and commentary? Well as the name suggests The Macro trader focuses on global macro trading. Right now they only trade ETF's but are looking at possibly adding in options, as they use them extensively in their own trading to help improve the risk to reward of the majority of their trades.

We find the commentary very useful and their bullish, neutral, and bearish posturing is possibly as good as their actual trade ideas in the model portfolio. The are a very model driven newsletter and use several models for each asset class that they trade. Which brings us to the next thing we like which is that they trade more then just stocks. Via the ETF's they trade US Stocks, Foriegn Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Currencies.

So how do we use, and recommend using The Macro Trader? We take many of their trade ideas as is and just trade the ETF's. Many times we also go in and if they like the MOO-Agribusiness then we will look at some of the different agribusiness stocks and see if we like the even more then the sector in general. After doing that we will look to see if we can create an even better risk to reward scenario via options and occasionaly even using futures.

All in all we think that The Macro Trader gives one of the best bangs for the buck out of the many services that we subscribe to and have subscribed to and wish them the best of luck going forward.

No comments:

Post a Comment